The ongoing protests in Iran have entered a critical phase, with President Donald Trump's threats of intervention adding a layer of complexity to the situation. The protests, sparked by economic grievances among shopkeepers in Tehran, have quickly spread to remote cities, challenging the country's leaders and raising questions about their legitimacy. As the protests escalate, Iran's leaders are grappling with the potential consequences of a crackdown, which could lead to international intervention.
Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has alleged that Israel and the U.S. are fueling the protests, though he provided no evidence. This claim has sparked debate and raised concerns about the potential for external interference in Iran's internal affairs. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf further intensified the situation by suggesting that Trump's threat of intervention makes U.S. bases in the region legitimate targets.
The protests have also been influenced by recent events, such as the joint Israeli and U.S. attack in June, which resulted in the death of over 1,000 people, including top military leaders and nuclear scientists. This attack, along with the capture of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro, who had a warm relationship with Tehran, has further strained Iran's relations with the U.S. and its allies.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, offers insight into the complex dynamics of the protests. She suggests that while Iranians may feel united in the face of external challenges, their feelings towards the regime and its leadership remain contentious. The economic struggles, including rising inflation and the devaluation of the Iranian currency, have contributed to the widespread dissatisfaction among the population.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has attempted to address the situation by suggesting that the interior minister meet with protest leaders to address their concerns. However, the Hengaw Organization for Human Rights reported that security forces killed two protesters in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, indicating the challenges in managing the protests. Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian studies program at Stanford University, highlights the regime's inherent corruption and incapacity as the primary drivers of the protests, rather than just economic issues.
The outcome of the protests remains uncertain. Trump's threats of intervention could either embolden the protesters or lead to a more aggressive response from security forces. The will of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest authority in the Islamic Republic, will play a crucial role in determining the fate of the protests. As tensions continue to rise, the international community watches closely, awaiting the resolution of this complex and potentially pivotal moment in Iran's history.
